With Mortgage Rates Declining, Homebuyers Must Decide: Buy Now With Little Competition, Or Bet on Rates Falling More?

Pending home sales are up just 0.8% from a year ago, with many house hunters hoping rates will drop substantially more. But if that were to happen, sellers would regain the upper hand and home prices would likely rise more. 

The median U.S. home-sale price rose 2.2% year over year during the four weeks ending September 14, the biggest increase in five months. 

This week’s median monthly housing payment is $2,590, up slightly from last week’s nine-month low but still near the lowest level of 2025. Payments increased despite the weekly average mortgage rate dropping to 6.35%, the lowest level in nearly a year, because of rising prices. 

Prices are rising despite slow sales because new listings are dwindling. Pending home sales are up just 0.8% from a year earlier, the smallest increase in two months. New listings are up just 1.1%, marking the third straight month they have increased or decreased by about 1% or less, and total listings are up 9.9%, the smallest increase since March 2024.

Mortgage rates have dropped to 6.35% from roughly 6.9% at the start of the summer because of weaker-than-expected jobs reports and anticipation of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut of the year, which came this week. While falling mortgage rates and more purchasing power have brought some house hunters off the sidelines, many are hoping rates drop further before making a move, according to Redfin agents. 

“It is definitely a buyer’s market here,” said Tamara Mattox-Kabat, a Redfin Senior Premier Agent in Denver. “If they’re not priced and presented well from the outset, many homes are sitting on the market longer than usual, and many sellers are open to concessions. A lot of buyers are waiting for interest rates to drop further before making offers. The problem with that strategy is that if rates do fall again, more buyers will come off the sidelines, prices will rise, and sellers will regain their leverage. That means even with lower mortgage rates, buyers could end up with a higher monthly payment.”

The Fed cut interest rates this week, as expected, and signaled two more potential cuts before the end of the year. Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to remain steady as markets await further economic data, particularly the next jobs report, which comes out at the start of October.